With the Third Pick in the 2014 #NBADraft, the Philadelphia 76ers Select…

I am not a journalist. I have zero connections in the sports world. I have never met anyone who works in the Sixers front office. My statements are based on absolutely nothing concrete, they are completely non-substantive, they are so unsourced as to be essentially meaningless.

Everyone I read consistently about all things Sixers, more or less, has real sources, real connections, and real insights into what might be going on in the Mind of Sam Hinkie on the most important day of his GM career so far.

There are about a trillion rumors out there, from people like Woj who know more that just about anyone else about what’s going on, and from pretty much everyone else who has ever even thought they might possible be something resembling a sports journalist.

All that being said, you know I’m right.

So. Who are the Sixers picking?

Joel Embiid.

Why? Because he is the Ultimate Hinkie Pick.

Let’s look at the math: He’s immensely talented. He’s big. He’s injured. He is currently undervalued. He has huge upside and huge risk.

If he heals properly (which he should), and he manages not to get too many recurring stress fractures (which he also should), he will most likely be a Franchise Player, a really amazing center who will be a many-time All-Star. That’s his upside.

Here’s the problem: Two stress fractures in a year. Stress fractures recur, especially in feet, even more especially in guys who are seven feet tall and 260 lbs. and do a lot of jumping and running. There have been reports that there are more problems lurking within his medical reports. Who knows if they’re true? There’s a non-trivial chance that he plays like maybe 30-40 games over the course of his entire rookie deal. He’ll show just enough tantalizing talent that he gets re-upped for real years and money. And plays maybe 10-15 games a year on that new contract.

Of course, the other side of that is that you let him pass, someone else grabs him, he stays healthy, and ends up as a Hall of Famer.

So. Anyway. There won’t be a trade for #1, at least not from Hinkie. Wiggins isn’t going to dramatically fall to us. Hinkie is going to swing for the fences, from his heels, and it’s either a home run or he whiffs.

Say hi to Big Jo, newest Sixer.

 

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